Executive Summary

 As of December 2025, the European Union’s enlargement policy has completed a total transition from a technical absorption exercise into a primary geostrategy. Driven by the existential threat of Russian aggression in Ukraine and the slow influence of China in the Western Balkans, the EU now defines enlargement as a “geostrategy investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity”. This strategic re-anchoring, reinforced by the General Affairs Council (GAC) Conclusions of December 16 and the Brussels Declaration of December 17, reconfirmed by the European Council Conclusions from 18 December 2025, emphasizes that a larger Union is the strongest response to those who seek to divide and destabilize the European continent.

 The current landscape is defined by the “Regatta Principle” where progress is strictly merit-based and highly differentiated among the nine recognized candidates. While frontrunners like Montenegro and Albania are nearing the final stages of accession and the “Eastern Trio” (Ukraine and Moldova, except Georgia) maintains exceptional momentum, other candidates face persistent stagnation and even backsliding. North Macedonia remains a critical “special case”, technically prepared and strategically aligned yet procedurally blocked by a constitutional hurdle that has created an environment of “reform fatigue” and political stalemate.

 The central challenge of 2026 is a dual transition: candidates must deliver deep structural reforms in the “Fundamentals Cluster,” while the EU must navigate a high-stakes negotiation for its own internal readiness. The ambition of achieving a Union of 30+ members by 2030 remains a challenging aspiration unless Member States secure political commitments in 2026 to begin the painful process of internal structural reform, including Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF 2028–2034), Qualified Majority Voting (QMV), Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Cohesion Policy. The 2030 target for enlargement remains a “realistic goal” only if the upcoming Cyprus and Ireland (2026), followed by Lithuania/Greece (2027) and Italy/Latvia (2028) Presidencies successfully combine political ambition with concrete institutional delivery. Merging political commitment with credible, sustainable results on both sides of the accession equation defines the path ahead.