Policy Brief, Strategers Discussion Series, September 17, 2026 

KEY MESSAGES:

• Convergence remains too slow. In 2025, GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity in the Western Balkans remained below 50% of the EU average, while labour productivity was around 40% of EU levels. Closing the gap requires faster productivity growth, stronger institutions and sustained investment in both physical and human capital.

• Implementation is the central constraint. The challenge is not only to mobilise finance, but to convert reforms and available resources into mature projects, stronger institutions, productive private investment, human-capital development and tangible improvements in citizens’ lives. Weak administrative capacity, project readiness, shallow firm finance and demographic pressures reduce the return on integration and investment.

• The next EU enlargement framework should be larger and finance measurable convergence. The 2028–2034 framework should strengthen the link between reforms, investment and outcomes, with financing tied not only to reform milestones but also to measurable progress in productivity, income, employment, human capital and institutional performance. Under the right combination of structural reform, deeper Single Market integration and effective EU financing, GDP per capita could rise by about one-third within a decade.